Kyustendil 1–2 Vihren: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vihren

9/20/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Kyustendil50%

×Draw24%

Vihren26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchVihren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.15

Kyustendil

1.68

Vihren

1.15

Kyustendil creates 46% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 114 away

2.09

creates per match

1.48

0.81

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Vihren

1.48

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Vihren

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Vihren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Vihren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

74%

Kyustendil or Vihren

76%

Draw or Vihren

50%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

27%

Vihren wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

81%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

50%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

24%

Vihren 1+ goals

68%

Vihren 2+ goals

32%

Vihren 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

66%

Vihren (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Vihren away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Vihren defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vihren attack 1.48 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kyustendil scores more

50%

level

24%

Vihren scores more

26%

Kyustendil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff