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Vihor vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Vihor
Vihor
CANC
00:00
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
4/18/2020League #217League #217 · East - 24Nogometno igralište Korea Jelisavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vihor49%
×Draw23%
NAŠK Našice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihor
1.81
NAŠK Našice
1.30

Vihor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

Vihor
1.38
NAŠK Našice
0.86

allows per match

Vihor
1.75
NAŠK Našice
2.25

finishing

Vihor+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihor ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vihor or draw
72%
Vihor or NAŠK Našice
77%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
51%

Winning margin

Vihor wins by 2+
27%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vihor 1+ goals
84%
Vihor 2+ goals
54%
Vihor 3+ goals
27%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
73%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
37%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vihor (draw refunded)
64%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihor at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihor attack 1.38 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Vihor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vihor scores more
49%
level
23%
NAŠK Našice scores more
28%

Vihor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vihor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vihor host NAŠK Našice

April 18, 2020: Vihor take on NAŠK Našice in League #217. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vihor host NAŠK Našice at Nogometno igralište Korea Jelisavac.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.