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NAŠK Našice vs Vihor — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
2 – 1
Vihor
Vihor
9/19/2020League #217League #217 · East - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

NAŠK Našice47%
×Draw24%
Vihor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.71
Vihor
1.29

NAŠK Našice creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.25
Vihor
1.28

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.29
Vihor
2.17

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Vihor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Vihor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
71%
NAŠK Našice or Vihor
76%
Draw or Vihor
53%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
25%
Vihor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
82%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
51%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
24%
Vihor 1+ goals
72%
Vihor 2+ goals
37%
Vihor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
62%
Vihor (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Vihor away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Vihor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vihor attack 1.28 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
47%
level
24%
Vihor scores more
29%

NAŠK Našice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NAŠK Našice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: NAŠK Našice 2–1 Vihor

NAŠK Našice beat Vihor 2-1 in League #217 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.