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Vihor vs Bedem Ivankovo — League #217 2026

Vihor
Vihor
FT
0 – 1
Bedem Ivankovo
Bedem Ivankovo
9/14/2019League #217League #217 · East - 4Nogometno igralište Korea Jelisavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vihor40%
×Draw24%
Bedem Ivankovo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihor
1.59
Bedem Ivankovo
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vihor
1.38
Bedem Ivankovo
1.20

allows per match

Vihor
1.75
Bedem Ivankovo
1.80

finishing

Vihor+0.00on par
Bedem Ivankovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihor ↓

Bedem Ivankovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vihor or draw
64%
Vihor or Bedem Ivankovo
76%
Draw or Bedem Ivankovo
60%

Winning margin

Vihor wins by 2+
20%
Bedem Ivankovo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vihor 1+ goals
80%
Vihor 2+ goals
47%
Vihor 3+ goals
21%
Bedem Ivankovo 1+ goals
77%
Bedem Ivankovo 2+ goals
43%
Bedem Ivankovo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vihor (draw refunded)
53%
Bedem Ivankovo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihor at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Bedem Ivankovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihor attack 1.38 + Bedem Ivankovo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bedem Ivankovo attack 1.20 + Vihor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihor scores more
40%
level
24%
Bedem Ivankovo scores more
36%

Vihor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vihor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihor vs Bedem Ivankovo

Bedem Ivankovo beat Vihor 1-0 in League #217 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Nogometno igralište Korea Jelisavac in Jelisavac.