Bedem Ivankovo 2–1 Vihor: Result & Stats

Bedem Ivankovo

FT

2 – 1

Vihor

8/22/2020

League #217 · East - 1Igralište Grac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bedem Ivankovo50%

×Draw19%

Vihor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bedem IvankovoExpected goals in this matchVihor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.89

Bedem Ivankovo

2.46

Vihor

1.89

Bedem Ivankovo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

2.75

creates per match

1.28

2.50

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Bedem Ivankovo

2.75

Vihor

1.28

allows per match

Bedem Ivankovo

2.50

Vihor

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bedem Ivankovo+0.00on par

Vihor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bedem Ivankovo ↓

Vihor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Bedem Ivankovo or draw

70%

Bedem Ivankovo or Vihor

81%

Draw or Vihor

50%

Winning margin

Bedem Ivankovo wins by 2+

31%

Vihor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bedem Ivankovo 1+ goals

91%

Bedem Ivankovo 2+ goals

70%

Bedem Ivankovo 3+ goals

44%

Vihor 1+ goals

85%

Vihor 2+ goals

56%

Vihor 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bedem Ivankovo (draw refunded)

63%

Vihor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bedem Ivankovo at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Vihor away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bedem Ivankovo attack 2.75 + Vihor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.46

Vihor attack 1.28 + Bedem Ivankovo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bedem Ivankovo scores more

50%

level

19%

Vihor scores more

30%

Bedem Ivankovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bedem Ivankovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff