Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vihiga United FC vs KCB — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
2 – 1
KCB
KCB
Unknown 34', 16'
S. Mwangi 14'
8/13/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihiga United FC25%
×Draw31%
KCB44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
0.79
KCB
1.15

KCB creates 46% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.73
KCB
1.12

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.17
KCB
0.86

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
56%
Vihiga United FC or KCB
69%
Draw or KCB
75%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
8%
KCB wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
55%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
19%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
5%
KCB 1+ goals
68%
KCB 2+ goals
32%
KCB 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
36%
KCB (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

KCB away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.86 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + KCB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

KCB attack 1.12 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
25%
level
31%
KCB scores more
44%

KCB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Mwangi
16'
34'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs KCB

Vihiga United FC beat KCB 2-1 in FKF Premier League on August 13, 2021.

Goals: S. Mwangi (14'), ? (16', 34').

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.