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KCB vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
1 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
S. Mwangi 81'
2/6/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 9Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

KCB42%
×Draw30%
Vihiga United FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.14
Vihiga United FC
0.87

KCB creates 31% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 51 away

creates per match

KCB
1.10
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

KCB
0.96
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

KCB or draw
72%
KCB or Vihiga United FC
70%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
58%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
18%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
68%
KCB 2+ goals
32%
KCB 3+ goals
11%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
58%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
22%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
60%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.96 · 138 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.10 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + KCB defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KCB scores more
42%
level
30%
Vihiga United FC scores more
28%

KCB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
S. Mwangi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 1–0 Vihiga United FC

KCB beat Vihiga United FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on February 6, 2021.

Goals: S. Mwangi (81').

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.