Vihiga United FC 2–1 Kabati Youth FC

Vihiga United FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kabati Youth FC

3/29/2026

Super League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga United FC42%

×Draw28%

Kabati Youth FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga United FCExpected goals in this matchKabati Youth FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.04

Vihiga United FC

1.30

Kabati Youth FC

1.04

Vihiga United FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

0.63

1.46

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Vihiga United FC

1.14

Kabati Youth FC

0.63

allows per match

Vihiga United FC

1.46

Kabati Youth FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Kabati Youth FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Kabati Youth FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw

70%

Vihiga United FC or Kabati Youth FC

72%

Draw or Kabati Youth FC

58%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

19%

Kabati Youth FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

73%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

37%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

14%

Kabati Youth FC 1+ goals

65%

Kabati Youth FC 2+ goals

28%

Kabati Youth FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

59%

Kabati Youth FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Kabati Youth FC away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Kabati Youth FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kabati Youth FC attack 0.63 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Kabati Youth FC scores more

30%

Vihiga United FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff