Kabati Youth FC 1–1 Vihiga United FC

Kabati Youth FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vihiga United FC

9/28/2025

Super League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kabati Youth FC46%

×Draw27%

Vihiga United FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabati Youth FCExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.03

Kabati Youth FC

1.42

Vihiga United FC

1.03

Kabati Youth FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

1.05

creates per match

0.80

1.26

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kabati Youth FC

1.05

Vihiga United FC

0.80

allows per match

Kabati Youth FC

1.26

Vihiga United FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabati Youth FC+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabati Youth FC ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kabati Youth FC or draw

73%

Kabati Youth FC or Vihiga United FC

73%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

54%

Winning margin

Kabati Youth FC wins by 2+

22%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kabati Youth FC 1+ goals

76%

Kabati Youth FC 2+ goals

41%

Kabati Youth FC 3+ goals

17%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

64%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

28%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kabati Youth FC (draw refunded)

63%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabati Youth FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabati Youth FC attack 1.05 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Kabati Youth FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kabati Youth FC scores more

46%

level

27%

Vihiga United FC scores more

27%

Kabati Youth FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kabati Youth FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff