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Vihiga United FC vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
0 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
C. Miheso 40'
5/27/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihiga United FC22%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
0.77
GOR Mahia
1.33

GOR Mahia creates 73% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 143 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.73
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.17
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
50%
Vihiga United FC or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
78%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
6%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
54%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
18%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
4%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
74%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
38%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
30%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
22%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
50%

GOR Mahia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
C. Miheso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Vihiga United FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on May 27, 2021.

Goals: C. Miheso (40').

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.