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GOR Mahia vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
1 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
C. Momanyi 13'
A. Kigadi 56'
5/22/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 32Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GOR Mahia52%
×Draw28%
Vihiga United FC20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.38
Vihiga United FC
0.74

GOR Mahia creates 86% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 51 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
80%
GOR Mahia or Vihiga United FC
72%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
48%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
26%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
75%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
40%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
16%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
52%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
17%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
72%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
52%
level
28%
Vihiga United FC scores more
20%

GOR Mahia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
C. Momanyi
56'
A. Kigadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Vihiga United FC

GOR Mahia and Vihiga United FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on May 22, 2019.

Goals: C. Momanyi (13'), A. Kigadi (56').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).