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Vihiga United FC vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
0 – 2
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
1/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vihiga United FC38%
×Draw28%
Darajani Gogo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.21
Darajani Gogo
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
1.14
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.46
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
66%
Vihiga United FC or Darajani Gogo
72%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
62%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
16%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
70%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
34%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
12%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
68%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
32%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
52%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
38%
level
28%
Darajani Gogo scores more
34%

Vihiga United FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga United FC 0–2 Darajani Gogo

Darajani Gogo beat Vihiga United FC 2-0 in Super League on January 16, 2023.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.