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Darajani Gogo vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
5/10/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Darajani Gogo54%
×Draw26%
Vihiga United FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darajani Gogo
1.56
Vihiga United FC
0.85

Darajani Gogo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

creates per match

Darajani Gogo
1.35
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Darajani Gogo
0.90
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw
80%
Darajani Gogo or Vihiga United FC
74%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
46%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
28%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
79%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
46%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
21%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
57%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
21%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more
54%
level
26%
Vihiga United FC scores more
20%

Darajani Gogo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Darajani Gogo 5–1 Vihiga United FC

Darajani Gogo beat Vihiga United FC 5-1 in Super League on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.