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Vihiga United FC vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
0 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
Unknown 37'
1/3/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihiga United FC31%
×Draw32%
Bidco United37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
0.89
Bidco United
1.01

Bidco United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.73
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.17
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
63%
Vihiga United FC or Bidco United
68%
Draw or Bidco United
69%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
11%
Bidco United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
59%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
22%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
6%
Bidco United 1+ goals
64%
Bidco United 2+ goals
27%
Bidco United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
45%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
31%
level
32%
Bidco United scores more
37%

Bidco United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Bidco United

Bidco United beat Vihiga United FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 3, 2021.

Goals: ? (37').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.