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Bidco United vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
S. Waruru 78'
6/25/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bidco United37%
×Draw31%
Vihiga United FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.02
Vihiga United FC
0.92

Bidco United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
68%
Bidco United or Vihiga United FC
69%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
63%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
14%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
64%
Bidco United 2+ goals
27%
Bidco United 3+ goals
8%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
60%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
23%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
54%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bidco United scores more
37%
level
31%
Vihiga United FC scores more
32%

Bidco United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'
S. Waruru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 1–0 Vihiga United FC

Bidco United beat Vihiga United FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on June 25, 2021.

Goals: S. Waruru (78').

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.