Vihiga Bullets 0–1 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ulinzi Stars

2/5/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 12Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets24%

×Draw28%

Ulinzi Stars47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.31

Vihiga Bullets

0.85

Ulinzi Stars

1.31

Ulinzi Stars creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 146 away

0.76

creates per match

0.86

1.76

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

0.76

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.76

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

53%

Vihiga Bullets or Ulinzi Stars

72%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

76%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

8%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

57%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

21%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

73%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

38%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

34%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

24%

level

28%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

47%

Ulinzi Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff