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Ulinzi Stars vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
12/18/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 9Nakuru Show ASK Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ulinzi Stars59%
×Draw24%
Vihiga Bullets17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.72
Vihiga Bullets
0.81

Ulinzi Stars creates 112% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
83%
Ulinzi Stars or Vihiga Bullets
76%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
41%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
33%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
82%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
51%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
77%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
59%
level
24%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
17%

Ulinzi Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulinzi Stars vs Vihiga Bullets

Ulinzi Stars beat Vihiga Bullets 2-0 in FKF Premier League on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Nakuru Show ASK Ground in Nakuru.