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Vihiga Bullets vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rainbow
Rainbow
3/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Hope Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets45%
×Draw27%
Rainbow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.37
Rainbow
1.00

Vihiga Bullets creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
73%
Vihiga Bullets or Rainbow
73%
Draw or Rainbow
55%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
21%
Rainbow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
75%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
40%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
16%
Rainbow 1+ goals
63%
Rainbow 2+ goals
26%
Rainbow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
62%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rainbow attack 0.89 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
45%
level
27%
Rainbow scores more
27%

Vihiga Bullets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga Bullets 1–1 Rainbow

Vihiga Bullets and Rainbow drew 1-1 in Super League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Hope Centre in Nairobi.