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Rainbow vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
10/29/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow54%
×Draw26%
Vihiga Bullets20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.53
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

Rainbow creates 84% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
80%
Rainbow or Vihiga Bullets
74%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
46%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
28%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
78%
Rainbow 2+ goals
45%
Rainbow 3+ goals
20%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
20%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rainbow scores more
54%
level
26%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
20%

Rainbow at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rainbow 3–1 Vihiga Bullets

Rainbow beat Vihiga Bullets 3-1 in Super League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.