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Vihiga Bullets vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
4/30/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 25Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets26%
×Draw27%
Posta Rangers FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.95
Posta Rangers FC
1.40

Posta Rangers FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 149 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
53%
Vihiga Bullets or Posta Rangers FC
73%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
74%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
9%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
61%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
7%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
75%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
41%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
35%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
26%
level
27%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
47%

Posta Rangers FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Posta Rangers FC

Posta Rangers FC beat Vihiga Bullets 1-0 in FKF Premier League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.