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Posta Rangers FC vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
4 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
10/15/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Posta Rangers FC53%
×Draw24%
Vihiga Bullets22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.67
Vihiga Bullets
0.98

Posta Rangers FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 35 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
78%
Posta Rangers FC or Vihiga Bullets
76%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
47%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
29%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
81%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
50%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
23%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
26%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
71%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
22%

Posta Rangers FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posta Rangers FC vs Vihiga Bullets

Posta Rangers FC beat Vihiga Bullets 4-0 in FKF Premier League on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.