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Vihiga Bullets vs Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 4
Police
Police
4/19/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets19%
×Draw27%
Police54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.72
Police
1.42

Police creates 97% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 75 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Police
1.07

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Police
0.67

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
46%
Vihiga Bullets or Police
73%
Draw or Police
81%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%
Police wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
51%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
16%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
4%
Police 1+ goals
76%
Police 2+ goals
41%
Police 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
26%
Police (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Police away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Police defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Police attack 1.07 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
19%
level
27%
Police scores more
54%

Police at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Vihiga Bullets 0–4 Police

Police beat Vihiga Bullets 4-0 in FKF Premier League on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.