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Police vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Police
Police
FT
4 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
1/4/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Police65%
×Draw21%
Vihiga Bullets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.90
Vihiga Bullets
0.74

Police creates 157% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

creates per match

Police
1.42
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Police
0.65
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Police or draw
86%
Police or Vihiga Bullets
79%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
35%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
39%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
85%
Police 2+ goals
56%
Police 3+ goals
29%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
52%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
17%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
82%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Police scores more
65%
level
21%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
14%

Police at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Vihiga Bullets

Police beat Vihiga Bullets 4-0 in FKF Premier League on January 4, 2022.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.