Vihiga Bullets 0–2 Naivas: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Naivas

1/25/2024

Super League · Round 15KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets37%

×Draw29%

Naivas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchNaivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Vihiga Bullets

1.15

Naivas

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

1.11

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.32

Naivas

1.07

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.11

Naivas

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Naivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Naivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

66%

Vihiga Bullets or Naivas

71%

Draw or Naivas

63%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

15%

Naivas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

68%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

32%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

11%

Naivas 1+ goals

66%

Naivas 2+ goals

30%

Naivas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

52%

Naivas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Naivas away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Naivas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naivas attack 1.07 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

37%

level

29%

Naivas scores more

34%

Vihiga Bullets at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff