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Naivas vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
5/4/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naivas59%
×Draw24%
Vihiga Bullets17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.67
Vihiga Bullets
0.78

Naivas creates 114% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
83%
Naivas or Vihiga Bullets
76%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
41%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
32%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
81%
Naivas 2+ goals
50%
Naivas 3+ goals
23%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
54%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
18%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
77%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Naivas scores more
59%
level
24%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
17%

Naivas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Naivas 1–1 Vihiga Bullets

Naivas and Vihiga Bullets drew 1-1 in Super League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.