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Vihiga Bullets vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
3/13/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets27%
×Draw27%
Nairobi City Stars46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.98
Nairobi City Stars
1.39

Nairobi City Stars creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
54%
Vihiga Bullets or Nairobi City Stars
73%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
73%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
10%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
26%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
8%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
75%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
40%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
36%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
27%
level
27%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
46%

Nairobi City Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Nairobi City Stars

Nairobi City Stars beat Vihiga Bullets 2-1 in FKF Premier League on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.