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Nairobi City Stars vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
4 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
V. Otieno 74'
A. Kimani Njenga 68'
E. Odera 62'
A. Salim 10'
11/6/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Nairobi City Stars56%
×Draw23%
Vihiga Bullets20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.77
Vihiga Bullets
0.96

Nairobi City Stars creates 84% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
80%
Nairobi City Stars or Vihiga Bullets
77%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
44%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
32%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
83%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
53%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
26%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.77

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
56%
level
23%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
20%

Nairobi City Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Salim
62'
E. Odera
68'
A. Kimani Njenga
74'
V. Otieno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi City Stars vs Vihiga Bullets

Nairobi City Stars beat Vihiga Bullets 4-0 in FKF Premier League on November 6, 2021.

Goals: A. Salim (10'), E. Odera (62'), A. Kimani Njenga (68'), V. Otieno (74').

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.