Vihiga Bullets 2–2 Mombasa Elite: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

2 – 2

Mombasa Elite

5/12/2024

Super League · Round 31Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets49%

×Draw26%

Mombasa Elite24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchMombasa Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.95

Vihiga Bullets

1.47

Mombasa Elite

0.95

Vihiga Bullets creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

1.32

creates per match

0.78

1.11

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.32

Mombasa Elite

0.78

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.11

Mombasa Elite

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Mombasa Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

76%

Vihiga Bullets or Mombasa Elite

74%

Draw or Mombasa Elite

51%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

25%

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

77%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

43%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

18%

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals

61%

Mombasa Elite 2+ goals

25%

Mombasa Elite 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

67%

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

49%

level

26%

Mombasa Elite scores more

24%

Vihiga Bullets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff