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Mombasa Elite vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
0 – 2
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
12/10/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mombasa Elite52%
×Draw26%
Vihiga Bullets22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.52
Vihiga Bullets
0.89

Mombasa Elite creates 71% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
78%
Mombasa Elite or Vihiga Bullets
74%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
48%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
27%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
78%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
45%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
20%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
59%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
22%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
70%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
52%
level
26%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
22%

Mombasa Elite at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mombasa Elite vs Vihiga Bullets

Vihiga Bullets beat Mombasa Elite 2-0 in Super League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.