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Vihiga Bullets vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
6/30/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 38Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets37%
×Draw27%
Mara Sugar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.23
Mara Sugar
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
64%
Vihiga Bullets or Mara Sugar
73%
Draw or Mara Sugar
63%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
16%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
71%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
35%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
13%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
34%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
51%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
37%
level
27%
Mara Sugar scores more
36%

Vihiga Bullets at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga Bullets 2–1 Mara Sugar

Vihiga Bullets beat Mara Sugar 2-1 in Super League on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Police Sacco Stadium in Nairobi.