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Mara Sugar vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
10/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mara Sugar60%
×Draw23%
Vihiga Bullets17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.79
Vihiga Bullets
0.82

Mara Sugar creates 118% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
83%
Mara Sugar or Vihiga Bullets
77%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
40%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
35%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
83%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
53%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
26%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
20%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
78%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
60%
level
23%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
17%

Mara Sugar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mara Sugar 5–0 Vihiga Bullets

Mara Sugar beat Vihiga Bullets 5-0 in Super League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.