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Vihiga Bullets vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
4/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets47%
×Draw28%
Luanda Villa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.31
Luanda Villa
0.88

Vihiga Bullets creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
75%
Vihiga Bullets or Luanda Villa
72%
Draw or Luanda Villa
53%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
22%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
73%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
38%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
14%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
59%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
22%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
65%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
47%
level
28%
Luanda Villa scores more
25%

Vihiga Bullets at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Luanda Villa

Vihiga Bullets beat Luanda Villa 1-0 in Super League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.