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Luanda Villa vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
1/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luanda Villa54%
×Draw25%
Vihiga Bullets20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.58
Vihiga Bullets
0.86

Luanda Villa creates 84% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
80%
Luanda Villa or Vihiga Bullets
75%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
46%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
29%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
79%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
47%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
21%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
58%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
21%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
54%
level
25%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
20%

Luanda Villa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Luanda Villa 1–1 Vihiga Bullets

Luanda Villa and Vihiga Bullets drew 1-1 in Super League on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.