Vihiga Bullets 0–3 Kariobangi Sharks

Vihiga Bullets

FT

0 – 3

Kariobangi Sharks

10/20/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 3Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets24%

×Draw27%

Kariobangi Sharks49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.40

Vihiga Bullets

0.89

Kariobangi Sharks

1.40

Kariobangi Sharks creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 144 away

0.76

creates per match

1.04

1.76

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

0.76

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.76

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

51%

Vihiga Bullets or Kariobangi Sharks

73%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

76%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

8%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

59%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

22%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

6%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

75%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

41%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

33%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

24%

level

27%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

49%

Kariobangi Sharks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff