Kariobangi Sharks 3–3 Vihiga Bullets

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Vihiga Bullets

1/18/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 8Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks57%

×Draw22%

Vihiga Bullets21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.04

Kariobangi Sharks

1.88

Vihiga Bullets

1.04

Kariobangi Sharks creates 81% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 35 away

1.38

creates per match

0.83

1.25

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.38

Vihiga Bullets

0.83

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Vihiga Bullets

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

79%

Kariobangi Sharks or Vihiga Bullets

78%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

43%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

33%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

85%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

56%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

29%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

65%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

28%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

73%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

57%

level

22%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

21%

Kariobangi Sharks at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff