Vihiga Bullets 0–0 Kajiado: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kajiado

6/16/2024

Super League · Round 36Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets58%

×Draw22%

Kajiado20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchKajiado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.02

Vihiga Bullets

1.92

Kajiado

1.02

Vihiga Bullets creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.32

Kajiado

0.94

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.11

Kajiado

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Kajiado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

80%

Vihiga Bullets or Kajiado

78%

Draw or Kajiado

42%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

34%

Kajiado wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

85%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

57%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

30%

Kajiado 1+ goals

64%

Kajiado 2+ goals

27%

Kajiado 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

75%

Kajiado (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

58%

level

22%

Kajiado scores more

20%

Vihiga Bullets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff