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Kajiado vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
0 – 1
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
9/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kajiado47%
×Draw25%
Vihiga Bullets27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.58
Vihiga Bullets
1.14

Kajiado creates 39% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
73%
Kajiado or Vihiga Bullets
75%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
53%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
24%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
79%
Kajiado 2+ goals
47%
Kajiado 3+ goals
21%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
68%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
32%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
63%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kajiado scores more
47%
level
25%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
27%

Kajiado at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kajiado vs Vihiga Bullets

Vihiga Bullets beat Kajiado 1-0 in Super League on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.