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Vihiga Bullets vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
1/22/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets18%
×Draw25%
GOR Mahia58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.78
GOR Mahia
1.63

GOR Mahia creates 109% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 144 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
42%
Vihiga Bullets or GOR Mahia
75%
Draw or GOR Mahia
82%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
54%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
18%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
4%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
80%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
48%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
24%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
18%
level
25%
GOR Mahia scores more
58%

GOR Mahia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Vihiga Bullets 3-1 in FKF Premier League on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.