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GOR Mahia vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
2 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
2/13/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

GOR Mahia66%
×Draw21%
Vihiga Bullets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.98
Vihiga Bullets
0.76

GOR Mahia creates 161% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 35 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
86%
GOR Mahia or Vihiga Bullets
79%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
34%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
41%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
86%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
59%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
31%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
53%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
18%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
83%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
66%
level
21%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
14%

GOR Mahia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: GOR Mahia 2–0 Vihiga Bullets

GOR Mahia beat Vihiga Bullets 2-0 in FKF Premier League on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.