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Vihiga Bullets vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
4/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets44%
×Draw28%
Darajani Gogo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.30
Darajani Gogo
0.97

Vihiga Bullets creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
72%
Vihiga Bullets or Darajani Gogo
72%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
56%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
20%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
73%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
37%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
14%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
62%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
25%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
61%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
44%
level
28%
Darajani Gogo scores more
28%

Vihiga Bullets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga Bullets 2–1 Darajani Gogo

Vihiga Bullets beat Darajani Gogo 2-1 in Super League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.