Darajani Gogo 2–0 Vihiga Bullets: Result & Stats

Darajani Gogo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vihiga Bullets

2/3/2024

Super League · Round 18KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Darajani Gogo52%

×Draw26%

Vihiga Bullets22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darajani GogoExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.87

Darajani Gogo

1.52

Vihiga Bullets

0.87

Darajani Gogo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

0.84

0.90

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Darajani Gogo

1.35

Vihiga Bullets

0.84

allows per match

Darajani Gogo

0.90

Vihiga Bullets

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw

78%

Darajani Gogo or Vihiga Bullets

74%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

48%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

27%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

78%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

45%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

20%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

58%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

22%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

71%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more

52%

level

26%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

22%

Darajani Gogo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff