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Vihiga Bullets vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
2/15/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 14Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets26%
×Draw28%
Bidco United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.90
Bidco United
1.30

Bidco United creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 101 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
54%
Vihiga Bullets or Bidco United
72%
Draw or Bidco United
74%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
9%
Bidco United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
59%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
23%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
6%
Bidco United 1+ goals
73%
Bidco United 2+ goals
37%
Bidco United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
36%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
26%
level
28%
Bidco United scores more
46%

Bidco United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Vihiga Bullets 0–3 Bidco United

Bidco United beat Vihiga Bullets 3-0 in FKF Premier League on February 15, 2023.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.