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Bidco United vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
5/28/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bidco United53%
×Draw25%
Vihiga Bullets22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.61
Vihiga Bullets
0.95

Bidco United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
78%
Bidco United or Vihiga Bullets
75%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
47%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
28%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
80%
Bidco United 2+ goals
48%
Bidco United 3+ goals
22%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
61%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
70%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bidco United scores more
53%
level
25%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
22%

Bidco United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs Vihiga Bullets

Bidco United and Vihiga Bullets drew 3-3 in FKF Premier League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.