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Vihiga Bullets vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
12/12/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets23%
×Draw27%
AFC Leopards50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
0.90
AFC Leopards
1.46

AFC Leopards creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 146 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
50%
Vihiga Bullets or AFC Leopards
73%
Draw or AFC Leopards
77%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
8%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
59%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
23%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
6%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
77%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
43%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
32%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
23%
level
27%
AFC Leopards scores more
50%

AFC Leopards at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Vihiga Bullets 1–1 AFC Leopards

Vihiga Bullets and AFC Leopards drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.