AFC Leopards 0–0 Vihiga Bullets: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vihiga Bullets

2/27/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 18Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AFC Leopards59%

×Draw23%

Vihiga Bullets18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.84

AFC Leopards

1.76

Vihiga Bullets

0.84

AFC Leopards creates 110% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 35 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.86

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Vihiga Bullets

0.83

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Vihiga Bullets

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

82%

AFC Leopards or Vihiga Bullets

77%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

41%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

34%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

83%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

52%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

26%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

57%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

21%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

77%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

59%

level

23%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

18%

AFC Leopards at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff