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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
2 – 1
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
8/14/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 2Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo79%
×Draw14%
Peshtera Galata8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.71
Peshtera Galata
0.73

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 271% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
92%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Peshtera Galata
86%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
21%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
57%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
93%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
75%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
50%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
52%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
17%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
91%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.71

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
79%
level
14%
Peshtera Galata scores more
8%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 2–1 Peshtera Galata

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Peshtera Galata 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.