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Peshtera Galata vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
1 – 1
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
4/30/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 29Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata43%
×Draw25%
Vihar Slavyanovo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
1.54
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.31

Peshtera Galata creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
68%
Peshtera Galata or Vihar Slavyanovo
75%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
57%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
21%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
79%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
45%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
20%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
73%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
38%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
57%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
43%
level
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
32%

Peshtera Galata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Peshtera Galata 1–1 Vihar Slavyanovo

Peshtera Galata and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.