Vihar Slavyanovo 2–2 OFK Levski: Result & Stats

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

2 – 2

OFK Levski

3/23/2024

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 20Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo68%

×Draw19%

OFK Levski13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchOFK Levski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.83

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.19

OFK Levski

0.83

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 100 away

2.08

creates per match

0.90

0.77

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

OFK Levski

0.90

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

OFK Levski

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

OFK Levski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

87%

Vihar Slavyanovo or OFK Levski

81%

Draw or OFK Levski

32%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

44%

OFK Levski wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

89%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

64%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

37%

OFK Levski 1+ goals

56%

OFK Levski 2+ goals

20%

OFK Levski 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

84%

OFK Levski (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.19

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

68%

level

19%

OFK Levski scores more

13%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff