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OFK Levski vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
11/23/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 12Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

OFK Levski37%
×Draw26%
Vihar Slavyanovo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
1.29
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 95 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
63%
OFK Levski or Vihar Slavyanovo
74%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
63%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
16%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
72%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
37%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
14%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
73%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
37%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
50%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OFK Levski scores more
37%
level
26%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
37%

OFK Levski at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "OFK Levski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Levski vs Vihar Slavyanovo

OFK Levski and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.