Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vihar Slavyanovo vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
4/22/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 27Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo36%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
1.54
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 43 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
60%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
64%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
79%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
45%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
47%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
36%
level
24%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
40%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihar Slavyanovo vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.